1.
Discretionary
Spending Baseline Analysis
Suppose
that the Congress is considering the creation of a new education grant program
aimed at addressing learning disability issues at the state and local level.
The program would be funded through annual appropriations, with the money
transferred to states through a population-based formula by the Department of
Education. The proposal is to appropriate $650
million for fiscal year 2021.
Your
boss on the Senate Budget Committee has asked you to create a hypothetical
10-year baseline projection for the program, covering estimated costs for
fiscal years 2021
through 2030. (Note: Since this is a brand-new program and 2021 will be the
first year of appropriation, there are no “outlay priors” to worry about.)
There
is no history to rely on since this will be a brand-new program. However, the
proposed grant program seems similar to a few other education programs that you
are familiar with, so you think you can use historical spending patterns for
those similar programs to help create the baseline projection. You have
identified historical average spendout rates to use for estimating outlays from
new funding for the grants:
·
24 percent in the first year,
·
71 percent in the second year,
·
4 percent in the third year, and
·
1 percent remaining unspent (and
eventually lapsing)
To
inflate appropriations, assume that the baseline will reflect anticipated
inflation of 2% per year.
(1)
Create a “waterfall table” for fiscal
years of 2021 through 2030 using the above information. Create your spreadsheet
table in an Excel worksheet that clearly shows all your work for each year, including
showing the formulas—in other words, don’t create a table with just the end-product numbers.
(2)
How much appropriation would be required
in total under the 10-year baseline for the grants program? That is, what is
the 10-year total of baseline budget authority? (Respond in your Word
document.)
(3)
What are the first-year (2021) outlays
and the subtotal of the first three years (2021-2023) outlays? (Respond in your
Word document.)
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