Chapter 3 in-class Assignment
Name:
1. Use the data in PresVote.csv to answer the following
questions about the relationship between changes in real disposable income and
presidential election results. Table 3.4 describes the variables.
(a) Create
a scatterplot like Figure 3.1.
(b) Estimate
an OLS regression in which the vote share of the incumbent party is regressed
on change in real disposable income. Report the estimated regression equation
and interpret the coefficients.
(c) What
is the fitted value for 1996? For 1972? What does the fitted value tell you?
(d) What
is the residual for 1996? For 1972? Show that if you take the observed value
minus the fitted value, this equals the residual.
(e) Estimate
an OLS regression only on years in which the variable Reelection equals 1: that
is, years in which an incumbent president is running for reelection. Interpret
the coefficients.
(f) Estimate
an OLS regression only on years in which the variable Reelection equals 0: that
is, years in which an incumbent president is not running for reelection.
Interpret the coefficients and discuss the substantive implications of
differences from the model with incumbents only in part (e).
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