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Econometric is the application of statistical methods to the study of economic data and problems. There are two branches of econometrics: theoretical econometrics and applied econometrics. The former is concerned with methods, both their properties and developing new ones. It is closely related to mathematical statistics, and it states assumptions of a particular method, its properties.
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Econometrics is the branch of economics which is concerned with the use of mathematical methods (especially statistics) in describing economic systems.
Econometrics analyzes data using statistical methods in order to test or develop economic theory. These methods rely on statistical inferences to quantify and analyze economic theories by leveraging tools such as frequency distributions, probability, and probability distributions, statistical inference, correlation analysis, simple and multiple regression analysis, simultaneous equations models, and time series methods.
An example of the application of econometrics is to study the income effect using observable data. An economist may hypothesize that as a person increases his income, his spending will also increase. If the data show that such an association is present, a regression analysis can then be conducted to understand the strength of the relationship between income and consumption and whether or not that relationship is statistically significant—that is, it appears to be unlikely that it is due to chance alone.
The first step to econometric methodology is to obtain and analyze a set of data and define a specific hypothesis that explains the nature and shape of the set. This data may be, for example, the historical prices for a stock index, observations collected from a survey of consumer finances, or unemployment and inflation rates in different countries.
Econometrics is used to study and analyse economic data by using statistical methods. There is a list of practical applications of econometric techniques.
Forecasting macroeconomic indicators
Some macroeconomists are concerned with the expected effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the aggregate performance of the economy. Time-series models can be used to make predictions about these economic indicators.
Estimating the impact of immigration on native workers
Immigration increases the supply of workers, so standard economic theory predicts that equilibrium wages will decrease for all workers. However, since immigration can also have positive demand effects, econometric estimates are necessary to determine the net impact of immigration in the labor market.
Identifying the factors that affect a firm’s entry and exit into a market
The microeconomic field of industrial organization, among many issues of interest, is concerned with firm concentration and market power. Theory suggests that many factors, including existing profit levels, fixed costs associated with entry/exit, and government regulations can influence market structure. Econometric estimation helps determine which factors are the most important for firm entry and exit.
Determining the influence of minimum-wage laws on employment levels
The minimum wage is an example of a price floor, so higher minimum wages are supposed to create a surplus of labor (higher levels of unemployment). However, the impact of price floors like the minimum wage depends on the shapes of the demand and supply curves. Therefore, labor economists use econometric techniques to estimate the actual effect of such policies.
Finding the relationship between management techniques and worker productivity
The use of high-performance work practices (such as worker autonomy, flexible work schedules, and other policies designed to keep workers happy) has become more popular among managers. At some point, however, the cost of implementing these policies can exceed the productivity benefits. Econometric models can be used to determine which policies lead to the highest returns and improve managerial efficiency.
Measuring the association between insurance coverage and individual health outcomes
One of the arguments for increasing the availability (and affordability) of medical insurance coverage is that it should improve health outcomes and reduce overall medical expenditures. Health economists may use econometric models with aggregate data (from countries) on medical coverage rates and health outcomes or use individual-level data with qualitative measures of insurance coverage and health status.
Deriving the effect of dividend announcements on stock market prices and investor behavior
Dividends represent the distribution of company profits to its shareholders. Sometimes the announcement of a dividend payment can be viewed as good news when shareholders seek investment income, but sometimes they can be viewed as bad news when shareholders prefer reinvestment of firm profits through retained earnings. The net effect of dividend announcements can be estimated using econometric models and data of investor behavior.
Predicting revenue increases in response to a marketing campaign
The field of marketing has become increasingly dependent on empirical methods. A marketing or sales manager may want to determine the relationship between marketing efforts and sales. How much additional revenue is generated from an additional dollar spent on advertising? Which type of advertising (radio, TV, newspaper, and so on) yields the largest impact on sales? These types of questions can be addressed with econometric techniques.
Calculating the impact of a firm’s tax credits on R&D expenditure
Tax credits for research and development (R&D) are designed to provide an incentive for firms to engage in activities related to product innovation and quality improvement. Econometric estimates can be used to determine how changes in the tax credits influence R&D expenditure and how distributional effects may produce tax-credit effects that vary by firm size.
Econometric Data Structure
There are three kinds of economic data sets. The structure of dependence over observation differentiates them. The following data sets are made:
Cross-section Data Sets: This is a type of data set gathered through the observation of individuals, households, or businesses over a specific time. These observations are unrelated.
Panel Datasets: Panel data sets combine time series, and cross-section data set characteristics. These data sets consist of several people surveyed over a certain time. It's a random sampling procedure because the people are independent, but their observations depend on each other.
Time-series: Data collected in time series are the kinds of economic data indexed by time. It includes interest, prices, and summarises. The serial dependence characterizes this type of economic data set so that the random assumption from sampling is inappropriate. Complete low-frequency economic data are available (i.e., it can be annual, quarterly, or even monthly). In comparison to cross-section studies, this makes the sample size smaller.
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